What Weather Scare?

July 21st, 2009 Posted in Uncategorized

Kind of hard to believe, but can we have a summer without a summer rally for grains/oilseeds? As I write this, CZ9 is breaking into new low territory for this entire bear market. All the wheat markets are stubbornly stuck down at the recent lows, and new-crop soybean are again toying with the idea of a down-side breakout.

I mean, typically we kill the crop three times, right? Drown it in spring, burn it in summer, and freeze it in it's final days?

Take a look at the seasonal tendencies for Dec. Corn & Wheat, and Nov.  Soybeans (courtesy MRCI, click on charts to enlarge):

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Do you note what I note in that they all tend to base at some point near the end of July, and then move steady/better in August? Maybe the timing is not right for a bounce yet. Maybe we do need to wait until August for some sort of price recovery -- for those that are looking for a recovery, that is.

Forecasts are benign. Weather looks good. If this sort of weather carries into August, there may still be a recovery - yet not much of one.

Biggest threat to the crop at this point remains the delayed planting & subsequent crop progress.

Bob