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Picture Perfect Beef Markets?

marketinsight — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 11:45:32 +0000

The fundamental backdrop to the cattle and beef market has been bullish of late, and I thought I'd lend an image or two to add perspective to the rallies that we've experienced in Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures.

"Where do we go from here?" is a top question for anyone involved in a market that has produced parabolic moves on either the upside or the downside. I like to use, as a subset of tools, correlation charts and historical tendencies to help form an opinion to answer that question.

Check these out ...

Courtesy MRCI

December Live Cattle Futures Historical Tendency

The first two images pertain to feeder cattle, one of the cash market in Ok City, and the next of the October Feeder Cattle futures market. Both indicate the potential for continued upside to the levels indicated on the chart.

The last chart is of the December Live Cattle futures. It shows how these futures have done over various time frames for the past 45 years. As you see, this time frame, too, indicates potential for continued upside.

Feel free to blog or contact me to discuss, Bob

Estimates for USDA Planted Acreage and Stocks Report

marketinsight — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 14:39:35 +0000

Hello Everyone: Click on the image below to enlargen. You'll find the estimtes for the USDA's Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out on Wednesday morning. Call me if you would like to discuss @ 1.800.388.0998, Bob

Contra-Seasonal Rally in Feeders to Continue?

marketinsight — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:59:41 +0000

As of this writing the cash cattle markets hadn't traded on the day in the TX/OK/NM region. The LCJ0 is posting a a 22 point gain. Feeder Cattle are fairing pretty well yet again with the FCJ0 @ +57.
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USDA’s Livestock Outlook

marketinsight — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:47:29 +0000

The USDA Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook led with the comment "Continued Contraction in Cow Herd Implies Decreased Production Beyond 2010."
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USDA Cattle on Feed Report 02.19.2010

marketinsight — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 17:22:14 +0000

The Cattle on Feed Report from the USDA ... See Below
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Estimates for Today’s Cattle on Feed & Forthcoming Tendencies

marketinsight — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 15:59:44 +0000

As I write this we are moments from the close of the LC and FC regular trading hours, and it surely seems that we are going to post yet another solid day for beef livestock markets - at least without much of a sell-off. The Daily Direct Regional report from the USDA is showing thru the afternoon report that negotiated deals are still at a standstill. We'll see if there's some late-day trade that occurs, perhaps up towards 90.50 to 91.00 like many expect.
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Heavy Lifting

marketinsight — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:32:29 +0000

The inverse correlation of feeder cattle prices to feed prices is being challenged, for regardless of whether the prices of such inputs as corn or soymeal go up or down -- feeder cattle keep powering up. FCK0 posted new swing highs today, and look to close nearer the highs than not. The tendency for FCK0 is for a fall in prices starting anywhere from mid- to late-Feb, and break into mid- to late-March. On that note, I imagine it would be possible for this rally to pull back some.
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Oilseeds and Grains Better on the Day

marketinsight — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:33:22 +0000

Today was a day where most commodities received a boost. The $US was lower by 70-some points basis the DXH0, equities were higher, and energies were higher - except for nat gas. The combination of these three helped push the commodity markets up, evidenced by the stronger CRB, Roger's, & Goldman indices.

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A Beautiful Bottom? … In Beans

marketinsight — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 15:14:53 +0000

Soybeans have been on a losing streak. Will this trend persist?

July '10 Soybeans (SN10) closed the first trading day of the year at $10.67/bushel. Today we're trading around $9.60 or so. Of the many reasons for the break, a primary one has been that the South American crop looks huge, and may very well get even bigger.
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Expectations for November USDA S/D Report

marketinsight — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:34:10 +0000

We have the November USDA S/D numbers due out tomorrow morning at 7:30am central time. For reference, I have posted a set of expectations for production and ending stocks. Click on the thumbnail image below to zoom in. (Courtesy of Informa Economics, Inc.)